CapitaCommercial Trust - Positive reversion achievable despite further fall in headline rents

Friday, July 17, 2009

CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) said at the meetings today that positive rental reversion was still achievable for many of the properties in its portfolio despite a further fall in headline rents. Notwithstanding the challenging office leasing market in 1Q09, CCT managed to achieve q-q increases in the same-property NPI in key properties, such as Capital Tower (+19%) and Six Battery Road (+3%) during the previous quarter. The average CCT office portfolio rent as of end-1Q09 was S$7.73psfpm. In its latest 2Q09 update, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) estimated CBD Core Prime Grade A rents registered a further decline of 11.6% in 2Q09, after a 28.1% fall during the previous quarter, to S$9.50psfpm. Relative to the peak of the cycle in 3Q08, CBD Core Prime Grade A rents have fallen 48.4% and our numbers suggest further downside of 16.8%. This is in line with the company’s expectation that the worst of the rental decline is probably now behind us.

Management also gave more colour on the use of the rights proceeds. Around S$664mn of the rights proceeds have been used to repay the S$650mn two-year secured term loan maturing in June next year and a bridge loan facility that is due in August. We have assumed S$735mn out of the net proceeds of S$803.5mn will be used to repay the two-year secured term loan of S$650mn due in the middle of next year and the two-year fixed rate notes of S$85mn due in August next year in our model. Assuming the S$85mn two-year fixed rate notes maturing next August will still be repaid with the remaining rights proceeds, CCT still has the following outstanding borrowings to refinance before end-FY11F: the S$150mn two-year fixed rate notes due in March next year and S$1.012bn of borrowings due in FY11F, assuming the S$370mn convertible bonds are put back to FY11F. With the financial flexibility of around S$3.05bn worth of unencumbered assets (as end-May valuation, includes One George Street, which will be unencumbered once the S$650mn secured term loan is paid down next year, but excludes the Raffles City asset, in which CCT owns a 60% stake), we believe CCT will be able to address these debt maturities in the event the unsecured debt market remains closed.

The Singapore office market remains a challenging one, based on conversations with management today, but we believe the stock, which is currently trading at what looks an undemanding implied enterprise value of around S$1,200psf for its good quality prime office assets, has more than reflected the downside risks. We maintain our BUY rating with a price target of S$1.07/unit, pegged to our intrinsic NAV estimate. Our price target implies a potential total return of 39.5%, including our projected FY10F DPU yield of 7.4%, at the current share price.

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